The election of 1876 is the centerpiece of every discussion of the Electoral College. The story: Hayes won the Electoral College by one vote, even though his opponent, Tilden, won the popular vote by nearly a quarter of a million votes. There were large questions about the legitimacy of the votes in four states, three in the South plus Oregon. Congress established an electoral commission to pass on the disputes. With 8 Republicans and 7 Democrats on the commission, every dispute was settled in the Republicans' favor by an 8-7 decision. So Hayes' one vote Electoral College victory was confirmed.

What the story doesn't explain is how Hayes could have won in the first place if Tilden had a quarter of a million votes more. Tilden's margin was not reduced by the disputes. If they had been resolved in his favor, his margin would have been even greater.

Winning 5 out of 6 small states gave Hayes a boost equivalent to 200,000 popular votes.

1876: Hayes(R) vs. Tilden(D) Small states make a president
	Electors	Total votes	Electors per 100,000 voters	Hayes	Tilden	%
Colorado	3	0	NA	0	0
Nevada	3	19,691	15	10,383	9,308	53%
Rhode Island	4	26,499	15	15,787	10,712	60%
Oregon	3	29,873	10	15,207	14,157	52%
Florida	4	46,776	9	23,849	22,927	51%
Vermont	5	64,460	8	44,092	20,254	69%
TOTAL	22	187,299	12	109,318	77,358	59%
For comparison:
Ohio	22	658,650	3	330,698	323,182	51%

The simplest answer is -- Colorado.

What put Hayes over the top were 3 Colorado electors appointed by the legislature without a popular vote ... all perfectly constitutional.

Colorado was admitted to the union in August, 1876. The state legislature, to save money, decided not to hold a presidential election (true story!) They simply appointed electors who voted for Hayes. So what put Hayes over the top were 3 electors not chosen by the public. This was all perfectly constitutional, and it did not figure in the controversy over disputed electoral votes.

Was it just a coincidence that Colorado was admitted to the union right before the closest electoral vote in history? Probably not. Colorado was the only state admitted to the Union between 1867 and 1889. According to Daniel Boorstin, Congress wanted to hold on to the patronage jobs in the territories as long as they could. So admitting a state to the union was quite an extraordinary event, and perhaps the expectation of three additional Republican electors was a motivating factor.

Hayes also carried 5 out of 6 small states (all but Delaware) that had disproportionate influence over the Electoral College decision. The table shows states that had more than 7 electors per 100,000 votes cast*. With these 5 states and Colorado, Hayes won 22 electors with just 109,000 in popular votes. The table compares that with Ohio, a state that had the same number of electoral votes. Hayes needed more than three times as many popular votes and barely took the state. The near sweep of the small states gave Hayes a boost equivalent to more than 200,000 popular votes.

* The average was just over 4 and the rest of the states ranged from just over 3 to just over 6..

Knowing that we did not get as many popular votes as Mr. Carter .... I probably could have learned to live with that.
- Bob Dole, 1976

It is often said that the formula for voting in the Electoral College favors the small states. But at the system evolved, the "winner take all" policy of most states neutralized the small state advantage. Of all the presidential elections, 1876 is the only one where the small states were decisive. It is poetic justice that the small states defeated Tilden, who was governor of New York, the largest state.

It is a peculiar coincidence that the one other election where the small state effect nearly made a difference was 100 years later. In 1976, Ford took 12 small states, Carter only 4. A small shift of votes in Ohio, Hawaii and Mississippi would have given the Ford/Dole ticket an Electoral College victory, while Carter would have still had more than a million vote lead in the popular poll.